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Sunday, April 5, 2009

New Green Energy Bubble may take years to burst

Considering that the global credit markets collapse deflated a still-forming alternative energy stocks bubble in 2008, the 80 to 90% drops experienced by quality clean green power companies have set the stage for a multi-year rally in renewable power stocks.

New developments in areas such as thin film solar, concentrated solar, wave energy / tidal power, geothermal energy, flywheels, offshore windpower, the list goes on and on, mean that public and private sector investments will provide increasingly cleaner and more diversified energy generation. It is still early days and for those who have not yet set up dollar cost averaging programs into green power mutuals funds, it is a prudent strategy when included in a portfolio including cash, bonds, and even real estate! One great rule of thumb that is an excellent starting place is to utilize your age for the perecentage of assets to be held in cash and government bonds. A 30 year old would have just 30% in these shorter term securities, while a 70 year old finds that over 2/3 of her portfolio will always be secure, if proper rebalancing occurs. If the past year hasn't taught people the importance of rebalancing to lock-in gains, then they are probably not ready to re-invest in battered equity markets to restore the growth portions of their portfolios now. Many will compound the error of not rebalancing before, by not rebalancing now. A very conservative investor should add 15 or 20% to their age, while a more growth oriented longer term investor may want to subtract 10 or 15 years from her age percentage, with the subsequent higher risk / higher reward profile.

My initial prognosis (formed a decade ago when many names were still vencap) that the publicly-traded clean power stocks would top out in 2008/2009 was hastened and deepened by the world financial crunch, so rather than facing a 3 to 4 year rally, we are likely looking at a post-Bush rally in global equity markets that may last 5 to 7 years. Many PV solar and wind energy companies are dirt cheap nowadays, and they and other green power stocks will provide torque to global equity funds for most of the next decade.

Peace 2 all,

Joe College

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